Ask ten buyers about home prices right now and you'll hear two very different worries. Half of them are afraid prices are about to crash. The other half are hoping they will.
That second group is bigger than you might think. A recent survey from Clever found that 58% of Gen Z buyers are actually rooting for a crash, simply because it would make owning a home feel within reach.
So what do the people who forecast this for a living actually expect?
What the newest numbers say
Every quarter, Fannie Mae surveys more than 100 housing economists and market experts about where home prices are headed. The latest Home Price Expectations Survey is in, and the short version is this: nobody on the panel is calling for a crash. Not even the pessimists.
On average, the panel expects home prices to rise 14.7% over the next five years, climbing every single year through at least 2030. Split the experts into optimists and pessimists and the picture holds. The most optimistic quarter of the panel sees prices up 22.7%. The most pessimistic quarter still expects an increase of about 6.6% by the end of 2030.
If you've been holding out for prices to fall, that's worth sitting with. Based on this forecast, you could be waiting a long time.
One caveat: these are national numbers. Prices in St. Louis, Kansas City, Springfield, and the rest of our Missouri and Illinois markets can run a little hotter or a little cooler than the national average, so it pays to know what's happening in your own neighborhood. But the big picture is clear. Prices aren't crashing, and historically, they've tended to rise.
How this forecast compares to last year's
Because Fannie Mae runs this survey four times a year, you can track how the experts' outlook shifts over time. That comparison tells an interesting story.
A year ago, the panel expected home prices to grow 2.1% in 2026. Now they're forecasting 2.5%. In other words, the near-term outlook actually got more optimistic.
Look further out, though, and the mood has cooled a bit. Each year from 2027 through 2029 is now expected to see slightly less growth than the panel projected a year ago, most likely a reflection of rates, affordability, and everything else weighing on the market right now.
Here's the part that matters most: every bar on that chart shows prices going up. The size of the increase has moderated, but the direction hasn't changed.
And a slower climb isn't a bad thing. After a few wild years, it's a sign the market is settling into a more normal, more sustainable pace. A little more growth here, a little less there, but the experts haven't wavered once on the idea that home prices will keep rising.
What it means in real dollars
Percentages are useful, but what you probably care about is what this means for your own move. So let's put it in dollars.
Take a $400,000 home purchased in January 2026. Apply the panel's latest forecast, and that home could be worth about $458,000 five years later. That's roughly $58,000 in added equity from price growth alone, before counting a single dollar of principal you've paid down.
On a $400,000 home bought in January 2026, based solely on the price appreciation projected by Fannie Mae's Home Price Expectations Survey.
That's real wealth being built while others sit on the sidelines, waiting for a crash the experts don't see coming. And with prices expected to keep climbing, waiting could simply mean paying more for the same home later.
To be clear, no forecast is a guarantee, and buying only makes sense when the monthly payment fits your budget. But if the main thing holding you back is the hope that prices are about to fall, the data says that's not the bet to make.
The bottom line
Whether you're bracing for a crash or hoping for one, the experts' verdict is the same: prices are still expected to rise, not fall. The pace may be slower than it was a few years ago, but the direction hasn't changed.
If you want to know what this means for your market and your plans, a NettWork Global agent can walk you through the local numbers and help you decide on the right timing for your move.